No Time to Suffer from Climate Anxiety?
Inspired by Sam’s “The Busy Worker’s Handbook to the Apocalypse”, I began learning more about climate change and also creating my own handbook on this most pivotal topic of the century. I aim to keep it as brief as possible and simple enough for busy and poor workers like myself, who may not even know what Paris Agreement is all about, to quickly grasp the ideas and debunk common climate change myths. Giving all credits to Sam, I also encourage you to explore Sam’s excellent wrtiting.
If you’re short on time, here’s the takeaway: The situation is much more critical than what you may have learned from the IPCC or any political statement. Without a doubt, human activities over the past century have been causing rapid and abnormal climate change; global warming is only part of it. This could result in partial or even complete destruction of humanity in the near future, with a particularly significant impact on people who are too busy or too poor to care about the environment. Solving this problem may appear nearly impossible. While adaptation is possible, speed kills.
By the way, I am not any kind of apocalyptic or doomsday enthusiast. However, I can’t help but wonder if individuals like me, who go about their day-to-day lives as usual, untouched by the impacts of climate change yet (other than witnessing the rising costs of everything), might unwittingly be contributing to the impending apocalypse!?
¶ Global Temperature Records Keep Breaking.
Temperature is a vital environmental factor in the evolution of living beings and is a crucial aspect of climate change. Throughout Earth’s history, there were times millions of years ago when dinosaurs ruled the Earth, and the planet was significantly warmer than it is today. There was also a period known as the Ice Age when Earth experienced much colder temperatures. After the last Ice Age, around 11,700 years ago, Earth’s climate gradually warmed up again, becoming relatively stable with minor fluctuations. This created an ideal environment for the advancement of human culture. However, in the last century, global temperatures have increased at an exceptional and alarming pace.
What has been the temperature like in recent years? In 2023, we had the hottest June ever recorded, with temperatures going up by 1.47°C compared to the pre-industrial (1850 to 1900) average. This broke the previous record by a significant margin. And as you might guess, July also set a new record. Basically each month for the rest of the year may be a new record for that month.
We need to be careful when looking at temperature charts. Charts can appear quite different and possibly confusing, depending on whether they show daily, monthly, yearly temperatures, or temperature changes over many years. A chart displaying daily or monthly temperatures can have more extreme “peaks” compared to a chart with yearly temperatures, which would show a smoother pattern. The same goes for news headlines we read. The titles like “hottest day,” “hottest month,” “hottest year,” or “hottest 5-year period” can’t be directly compared as they cover different time spans.
Additionally, some temperature charts show the actual temperature, while others show how it changes relative to a specific time. Most people prefer comparing today’s temperature to that during the pre-industrial period between 1850 and 1990. The location where we measure temperature also matters. Ocean temperature behaves differently from that on land, and temperature in Europe can be very different from the U.S., even though both are in the Northern Hemisphere.
Some climate change deniers focus only on specific temperature charts, which may seem harmless, to downplay the severity of global warming. However, if all types of temperature trends, regardless of the time frame, location, or conditions, consistently show abnormal temperature patterns, then it will already be too late.
Will next year be even hotter? As mentioned by Sam, What’s even worse for the forecast is that we are facing several unfavorable conditions: 1) a warm El Niño phase (possibly a strong one), 2) a particularly active solar maximum, and 3) decreasing aerosol shielding as a side effect caused by ongoing massive reductions in sulfur pollution. Combining various factors from both nature and human activities, coupled with self-reinforcing feedback loops, this suggests that not only are we very likely to experience the hottest Summer in 2024, but also, as several studies have forcasted, global temperature (in the long term) could already surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels very soon!
Why is 1.5°C so important? Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial (1850 to 1900) levels and strive for efforts to keep the temperature increase within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The agreement primarily focuses on the long-term global temperature goal and does not prescribe specific methods for calculating or tracking temperature changes. This means that even if the global temperature exceeds the 1.5°C limit during one hot summer, the world would be still considered ‘safe’ and ‘business as usual’ [sarcastic], as long as such over-the-limit occurrences do not happen every month and everywhere.
The IPCC’s Special Report “Global Warming of 1.5 ºC,” released in 2018, stated that “global warming would likely reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2052". However, as mentioned earlier, some scientists predict that we could reach the 1.5°C limit already within the next five years, or even already in early 2024!
Here is a nice interative web page where you can explore the impacts of a 1.5°C or 2.0°C temperature increase. And yes, if all the predictions are correct, we are going to experience these impacts very soon, and for some, it is already happening. Another interactive web page shows evidence.
The commonly mentioned global temperature represents a global average value. However, as mentioned before, in reality, temperatures are not rising at the same rate in all corners of the world and the warming effect can vary significantly by region. Most land areas undergo faster warming compared to ocean regions because it takes more energy to heat up water than land. The Northern Hemisphere experinces faster warming because it has a greater landmass ratio compared to the Southern Hemisphere. Moreover, the Arctic and high-latitude regions warm up at an even faster pace than the rest of the world, primarily due to the accelerated melting of ice.
The ocean has a very high heat capacity; in fact, it has absorbed 90% of global warming. Along with its other functions, the ocean serves as a very significant factor in climate change. At the begining of August 2023, the average daily global sea surface temperature (SST) surpassed the 2016 record and became the hottest one so far. Particularly in the Mediterranean Sea, the sea surface temperatures of some places even exceeded 30°C.
By the way, in 2023, we are currently experiencing a record-low sea ice extent.
Many climate change deniers or skeptics advocates that the current global warming is normal and has occured before in Earth’s history. Let’s take a look back at Earth’s temperature over a much longer period. While we won’t compare ourselves to dinosaurs from millions of years ago, we’ll focus on the time when modern humans began to evolve rapidly. This period is the geological Holocene Epoch, which began around 12,000 years ago after the Last Glacial Period, creating an ideal environment for various living species, including human beings.
It is commonly believed that until about 6,500 years ago, Earth’s temperature (during the Holocene period) reached its peak as the Holocene Climatic Optimum. Since then, some researchers suggest that the global temperature cooled down or remained relatively stable, while other studies reveal entirely different outcomes based on various conditions. The ongoing debate on the actual Holocene temperature trend is known as the “Holocene temperature conundrum”.
Some studies also indicate that human agricultural activities, dating back at least 5000 years, could have already altered the climate during Holocene Epoch and kept global temperature seemingly stable, warmer than it should be.
Estimating the climate of the past 12,000 years is quite challenging. What if we focus on just the last 2,000 years instead? Unfortunately, even the global temperature in the past 2,000 years cannot be agreed upon by many skeptics, after the famous Hockey Stick graph was presented.
Climate change deniers or skeptics might use controversial research studies on historical global temperatures to dismiss the alarming climate trend. They might argue that the current global warming is just a natural cycle. However, climate research is complex, especially when looking back in time. It can rely only on imperfect climate models and limited data (much of which is indirect data, also called proxy data, for instance: ice cores and tree rings). And obviously, there’s more historical climate data from the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere, which may not accurately represent global temperature trends. Also, data can be biased due to seasonal variations and lack of time or spatial resolution. Additionally, today’s temperature measurement technologies are just much more accurate than those used decades ago.
No one would be 100% sure about the temperature history in the past, however recent studies can confidently show that the global temperature change in the last 100 years is much faster and more significant than that in the past 6,500 years. A simple statement like ‘global temperature is increasing’ should not be the sole focus of the debate surrounding global warming. The rate and extent of temperature change, coupled with other environmental factors, are crucial and must be examined comprehensively.
Climate change deniers argue that global warming is primarily caused by natural cycles rather than by human activities. This claim is only partly true. Without humane influence, Earth’s tempeture still experiences fluctuations due to several natural factors,. such as La Niña/El Niño, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, solar activity, sea ice extent, Earth’s orbit changes, volcanic eruptions, and, of course natural greenhous gases. However, the temperature variations caused by these natural cycles are far less significant than those resulting from humane activties, such as CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels.
Both natural cycles and human activities have contributed to global climate change, and Earth’s climate systems maintained a resilient balance with gradual changes for at least the past 10,000 years. However, we face a significant abnormal challenge in recent decades due to man-made excessive global warming, and unfortunately, this warming effect is further amplified through reinforcing feedback loops. These ongoing loops will accelerate the warming effect to a state that could become IRREVERSIBLE, rendering Earth unsuitable for many living beings, including humans.
For example, if the global temperature continues to rise, Earth’s ice will keep melting. This reduction in ice coverage leads to less reflection (or albedo) of the Sun’s radiation, causing the Earth to absorb more heat. Consequently, the planet becomes even warmer, further accelerating the ice melting. This continuous cycle perpetuates itself, reinforcing the warming effect. If these cycles progress to a crtitcal condition, commonly referred to as a “tipping point” (or the last straw) — in this case, involving the “tipping elements” of ice, including glaciers, ice sheets, and sea ice — they will disappear permanently. This is just one of many examples of such feedback loops and tipping elements. There are numerous natural feedback cycles on Earth, interconnected with each other. Reaching one tipping point can also trigger other tipping points, leading to a cascading catastrophic effect or domino effect; once started, stopping its progression becomes extremely difficult or bearly impossible.
In fact there are at least 5 tipping points, including collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, very like have already been reached. While this may sound dramatic, what is truly alarming is that most of us still continue to think and behave as if it’s business as usual. And any greenwashing would only accelerate the disaster.
The “Boiling Frog” story is used as a metaphor rather than being an actual experiment— “If you put a frog in boiling water, it won’t jump out. It will die. If you put it in cold water, it will jump before it gets hot — they don’t sit still for you.” — Humans are different.
A quick summary: In recent years, global warming has already reached a range of 1.2°C to 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. The critical 1.5°C threshold could be reached in the next few years, possibly as early as 2024. Predictions also indicate that the Earth’s temperature could rise by at least 4°C by the year 2100 or even much earlier. This 4°C increase represents a global average, masking the fact that many regions will face even more extreme temperature changes. A 4°C rise is immense, and such a difference would drastically transform the appearance of our planet and lead to the sixth mass extinction. To put it into perspective, during the last Ice Age, Earth’s atmosphere was, on average, just only 4°C cooler than pre-industrial times. Evolution occurs over vast spans of time, and very few current inhabitants of Earth can adapt rapidly enough to accommodate such significant temperature shifts occurring within just a single century or two.
You may also want to check out other excellent summaries regarding the current situation in 2023: here and here.
☝️Last but not least, to judge and clarify information supported by climate denialists, there are a few good resources to have facts checked ✅: desmog, climate feedback and skeptical science
